The race to the 2026 FIFA World Cup is heating up, and one team’s fate hangs in the balance more than ever: Nigeria. After a nail-biting 2-1 victory over Lesotho, the Super Eagles have kept their World Cup dreams alive—but just barely. This win wasn’t just about three points; it was about staying in the fight for a spot in the finals, set to take place across Canada, Mexico, and the United States. But here’s where it gets controversial: with Benin leading Group C and South Africa still in the mix, Nigeria’s path to qualification is anything but certain. And this is the part most people miss: only the group winner is guaranteed a ticket to the World Cup, leaving the second-placed team in a precarious position, especially in a tightly contested group like this one.
Nigeria currently sits three points behind Benin, who secured a late 1-0 win over Rwanda, and just one point ahead of South Africa. The Super Eagles’ final group match against Benin on Tuesday (16:00 GMT) is a must-win—and not just any win. They need to beat their West African rivals by a two-goal margin to leapfrog them in the standings. But even that might not be enough. South Africa, hosting Rwanda in their final game, could still finish atop the group if results go their way. If Nigeria and Benin draw, South Africa would need a three-goal victory to qualify, adding another layer of complexity to this already dramatic race.
Here’s the real kicker: even if Nigeria finishes second, there’s no guarantee they’ll advance. Only the four best second-placed teams across African qualifying will enter the continental and inter-confederation playoffs, and Group C’s competitiveness could leave the runner-up with too few points to progress. It’s a high-stakes scenario that raises a thought-provoking question: Is the current qualification format fair to teams in such tightly contested groups?
Nigeria’s win over Lesotho was far from straightforward. Captain William Troost-Ekong opened the scoring from the penalty spot early in the second half after Moses Simon’s shot struck Motlomelo Mkwanazi’s hand. Substitute Akor Adams doubled the lead with 10 minutes remaining, but Lesotho fought back, pulling one back through Hlompho Kalake after a goalkeeping error. In a heart-stopping moment, Fusi Matlabe nearly equalized in injury time, only for his shot to drift wide. Nigeria survived, but the pressure is on.
Adding extra spice to the final matchday is the fact that Benin is coached by former Super Eagles manager Gernot Rohr, who led them to a 2-1 comeback win over Nigeria last year. Will history repeat itself, or will Nigeria get their revenge? Meanwhile, South Africa’s goalless draw with 10-man Zimbabwe in Durban—a match they were expected to win—has left their qualification hopes hanging by a thread. Despite dominating, Bafana Bafana couldn’t find the net, with Lyle Foster’s effort cleared off the line and Teboho Mokoena denied late on. To make matters worse, center-back Mbekezile Mbokazi was sent off in stoppage time, capping a frustrating night for the hosts.
Benin’s 1-0 win over Rwanda, secured by Aiyegun Tosin’s late goal, has put them in the driver’s seat. But with South Africa and Nigeria still in contention, Group C’s finale promises to be a thriller. Will Benin qualify for their first-ever World Cup, or will Nigeria or South Africa snatch the top spot? And what does this say about the unpredictability of African football? Let us know your thoughts in the comments—do you think Nigeria can pull off the upset, or is Benin’s lead too strong to overcome?
